General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.Foreign Direct Investment; Spatial Econometrics; Panel Data.

On the Dynamics of Exports and FDI: The Spanish Internationalization Process

This paper provides further insights into the dynamics of exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Spain from a time-series approach. The contribution of the paper is twofold: i) the existence of either substitution or a complementary relationship between Spanish outward investments and exports is empirically tested using a multivariate cointegrated model (VECM). The evolution in exchange flows (1993-2008) and country-specific variables (such as world demand - including Spain’s main recently growing foreign markets - for trade flows and the relative price of exports in order to proxy new global competitors) are taken into account for the first time. And ii) the growth in the trade of services in recent decades leads us to test a specific causality relationship by disaggregating between goods and services flows. Our results provide evidence of a positive (Granger) causality relationship running from FDI to exports of goods (stronger) and to exports of services (weaker) in the long run, the complementarity relation of which is consistent with vertical FDI strategies. In the short run, however, only exports of goods are affected (positively) by FDIs.Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Granger-Causality. JEL classification:F21, F40

On the dynamics of exports and FDI: The Spanish Internationalization Process

This paper provides further insights into the dynamics of exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Spain from a time-series approach. The contribution of the paper is twofold: 1) the existence of either substitution or a complementary relationship between Spanish outward investments and exports is empirically tested using a multivariate cointegrated model (VECM). The evolution in exchange flows (1993-2008) and country-specific variables (such as world demand - including Spain’s main recently growing foreign markets - for trade flows and the relative price of exports in order to proxy new global competitors) are taken into account for the first time. And 2) the growth in the trade of services in recent decades leads us to test a specific causality relationship by disaggregating between goods and services flows. Our results provide evidence of a positive (Granger) causality relationship running from FDI to exports of goods (stronger) and to exports of services (weaker) in the long run, the complementarity relation of which is consistent with vertical FDI strategies. In the short run, however, only exports of goods are affected (positively) by FDIs

Breaking down world trade elasticities : a panel ECM approach

Incluye bibliografíaEste trabajo analiza exhaustivamente la reciente disminución de las elasticidades del comercio internacional al crecimiento de la producción. Extendemos un modelo empírico de funciones de demanda de importaciones para tener en cuenta no solo factores transitorios, tales como los precios relativos y medidas de demanda ajustadas por intensidad en las importaciones (tablas Input-Output), sino también por factores permanentes normalmente omitidos, tales como proteccionismo, integración vertical [p. ej., cadenas globales de valor (CGV)] e inversión extranjera directa (IED). Mediante un panel heterogéneo y no estacionario de 27 países, estimamos un modelo de panel de corrección de errores (MCE), desde 1960 a 2015, para descomponer las elasticidades del comercio mundiales. Nuestros resultados evidencian: i) la presencia de cambios estructurales (cointegrados) de panel en la relación entre comercio y PIB en 2000 y 2009, siendo el consumo privado una fuente de perturbaciónii) si bien la inversión y las exportaciones son los componentes de demanda más sensibles e intensivos en importaciones, ello está lejos de ser un fenómeno transitorio, lo que está pesando claramente en la reciente desaceleración, y iii) la relevante contribución de las CGV muestra un patrón procíclico, cuestionando el carácter permanente de la actual nivelación de los procesos de integración vertical. Por el contrario, la ausencia de avances en la reducción de aranceles de importación y la relación de complementariedad entre IED y comercio, usualmente olvidada, muestran un papel residual. Con todo, nuestros resultados sugieren implicaciones de política económica sustanciales, ya que refuerzan la idea de un cambio histórico hacia una nueva etapa «normal» de comercio internacionalThis paper exhaustively analyses the recent decline of international trade elasticities to output growth. We extend an empirical model of import demand functions to account not only for transitory factors, such as relative prices and import intensity-adjusted measures of demand (I-O Tables), but also for habitually neglected permanent factors such as protectionism, vertical integration (i.e. Global Value Chains) and foreign direct investment (FDI). Dealing with a non-stationary heteregenous panel of 27 countries, we estimate a panel Error Correction Model from 1960 to 2015 in order to break down world trade elasticities. Our main fi ndings evidence: i) the presence of panel (cointegrating) structural changes in the trade-to-GDP relationship in 2000 and 2009, private consumption being a source of disruptionii) although investment and exports are the most sensitive, import-intensive components of demand, this is far from being transitory, which is clearly weighing on the current slowdowniii) the relevant contribution of GVCs shows a procyclical pattern, questioning the permanent nature of the current levelling-off of vertical integration processes. The lack of progress in reducing import tariffs and the usual discarded, complementary relationship between FDI and imports have a residual role. All in all, our results have substantial policy implications, as they reinforce the idea of a historical break towards a new ‘normal’ trading phas

Political allegation and literary speech in "¡Vámonos con Pancho Villa! y Se llevaron el cañón para Bachimba" by Rafael F. Muñoz

El presente artículo muestra el valor literario e ideológico de la narrativa de Rafael F. Muñoz y, más particularmente de sus dos novelas. A lo largo de él se analizan ¡Vámonos con Pancho Villa! y Se llevaron el cañón para Bachimba como ejemplos de obras que responden a las polémicas literarias y políticas de su tiempo sirviéndose de la figura de Pancho Villa.The present article shows the literary and ideological value of the narrative of Rafael F. Muñoz and, more particularly of his two novels. Along him they are analyzed ¡Vámonos con Pancho Villa! and Se llevaron el cañón para Bachimba as examples of works that answer to the literary and political polemics of his time being served Pancho Villa's figure

TFP growth and commodity prices in emerging economies

El objetivo de este trabajo es contrastar empíricamente el impacto entre países de shocks de precios de materias primas en el crecimiento de la PTF agregada en una muestra de economías emergentes. En un contexto de contabilidad de crecimiento, estimamos crecimientos de la PTF específicos por país (1992-2014) y seleccionamos sus determinantes más robustos mediante técnicas bayesianas de promediado de modelos. Para identificar los efectos de shocks estructurales proponemos un modelo VAR bayesiano en panel y calculamos el crecimiento de la PTF ajustada del ciclo, neta de shocks de demanda (brecha de producto) y precios de materias primas. Nuestros resultados sugieren que: i) la relación entre los precios de materias primas y el crecimiento de la PTF ha sido muy elevada en economías pequeñas exportadoras de materias primas (p. ej., un incremento del 10 % en los precios de materias primas se asocia con una expansión considerable del crecimiento de la PTF en un año para un exportador promedio de materias primas)ii) si bien nuestra evidencia no es suficiente para distinguir empíricamente entre explicaciones teóricas, nuestros resultados favorecen una interpretación en la que pesan los efectos de corto plazo de los precios de las materias primas sobre la productividad, ya sea a través de una dinámica de transición al sector manufacturero o a través de la medición errónea de la PTF, y iii) el crecimiento de la PTF ajustada del ciclo pone de relieve la importancia de los shocks de oferta negativos en los países exportadores de materias primas. Con todo, gran parte del aumento del crecimiento de la PTF en la última década estuvo relacionada con un entorno cíclico favorable, resultado que puede generar importantes implicaciones políticas para las economías dependientes de materias primasIn this paper we aim at empirically testing cross-country impacts of commodity price shocks to aggregate TFP growth for a sample of emerging economies. Under a growth accounting framework, we estimate country-specific TFP growth (1992-2014) and select the attendant robust determinants by means of a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. To identify the effects of structural shocks, we propose a Bayesian panel VAR model and calculate cyclically adjusted TFP growth net of demand shocks (i.e. output gap) and commodity prices. Our results suggest that: i) the relationship of commodity prices to TFP growth has been very high in small commodity-exporting economies (i.e. an increase of 10% in commodity prices is associated with a sizable expansion of TFP growth in a year for an average commodity exporter)ii) although our evidence is not sufficient to empirically distinguish among theoretical explanations, our results favour an interpretation that weights short-term effects of commodity prices on productivity, either through transitional dynamics to the manufacturing sector or through mismeasurement of TFPand iii) cyclically adjusted TFP growth highlights the importance of negative supply shocks in commodity-exporting countries. All in all, much of the increase in TFP growth in the last decade was related to a favourable cyclical environment, a result with potentially signifi cant policy implications for commodity-dependent economie

Box 4. Drivers of recent developments in euro area long-term interest rates

Artículo de revistaThis early-release box was published on 28 Marc

Box 3. The impact of supply and demand shocks on recent economic developments and prices

Artículo de revist

Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy

Artículo de revistaThe effect of the euro exchange rate on inflation has taken on significant importance recently, with the application of the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy measures having coincided with episodes of euro appreciation, such as that observed between the second half of 2017 and early 2018, which tend to exert downward pressure on imported prices. This article analyses the factors behind the fluctuations in the euro exchange rate against the dollar during the recent period, and finds that this appreciation may have largely been due to the higher relative growth of the euro area, compatible with a pick-up in expected euro area inflation. However, the subsequent depreciation, since February 2018, might reflect factors related to changes in the relative confidence of financial markets to the detriment of the euro, and to the lower relative growth of the euro area compared with the United States. Further, it is documented how the pass-through of exchange rate movements to overall consumer-price inflation in the Spanish economy has increased slightly in recent years, owing mainly to the energy component, while core inflation remains much less sensitive to exchange rate change

Una plataforma para facilitar el aprendizaje en ingeniería acústica

En este trabajo se presenta una plataforma que facilita la realización de diversas actividades y prácticas asociadas a contenidos en el ámbito de lo que se viene denominando “ingeniería acústica”. El sistema central de esta plataforma es una tarjeta de adquisición de datos para la que se han programado diversas aplicaciones en Labview. Se pueden distinguir distintas áreas entre las que destacamos: el estudio de los transductores (con emisión audible y ultrasónicos) y la acústica de salas. También se han implementado aplicaciones concretas para la realización de medidas con técnicas ultrasónicas (emisor-receptor y eco-impulso). A lo largo del documento se explican, en primer lugar los fundamentos teóricos de las aplicaciones. A continuación se indica la estrategia a seguir por el profesor tanto en una sesión de prácticas presencial como en una lección magistral demostrativa. La utilización de plataformas como las que se presentan en este documento es un elemento de motivación para el alumnado, ya que puede comprobar que es capaz de desarrollar herramientas que compiten (y a veces aventajan) con las comerciales